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How many COVID-19 cases will there be?
How long will the NZ lockdown that started in March 2020 last?
When will the COVID-19 vaccine be ready?
A diverse thinking collection of independent individuals can consistently make some predictions better than any single individual, or even experts. This is because they can frame things in different ways and come up with different potential options.
The below predictions were made by 67 respondents on, or before, 31 March 2020. Time will tell whether these specific predictions were accurate. In general, accuracy will depend on respondents:
Predictions will be less accurate if there were systematic bias across any of the these three factors.
These predictions can be used as a base case assumption as at 31 March 2020. The range of predictions is indicates that there are alternative scenarios that, although less likely, should be considered by decision-makers too
HOW MANY CASE WILL THERE BE AT THE START OF MAY 2020?
In New Zealand, how many total COVID-19 cases (positive, probable, deceased & recovered) will be confirmed by midday on 01 May 2020?
The average (mean) falls within the 1,000 - 5,000 category
Correct. 1479 cases on 01 May 2020
HOW LONG WILL THE FIRST LOCKDOWN LAST?
Alert Level 4 was activated in New Zealand at midnight on Wednesday 25th March. How long will it take to be moved to a lower level?
The average (mean) falls within the Five Weeks category (between Sat 25th April and Friday 1st May)
Correct. Level 4 ended 11.59pm on Monday April 27
WHEN WILL A VACCINE BE READY?
When will a vaccine developed for COVID-19 be declared both effective and safe for use?
The average (mean) falls within the January or February 2021 category